World War 3 (Why, When, Who, How)

[Alek_tq]

In hope that this thread will attract people who actually have some knowledge/interest in history (and politics/sociology) I wish to open this discussion. What do you think, what will be the motive and what will be the cause for WWIII (and there is a difference between "motive" and "cause", just so you know). This being a really speculative (sp?) topic, I do not think it will hold on for too long - still, it might end up like an interesting discussion.

In my opinion, nothing big and important will happen till we go low on drinking water. Nations that are based on big rivers like Danube, Volga, Nile, maybe the Mesopotamian area (Tigris and Euphrates)[, etc] will have to struggle for their territory as bigger nation's will, in panic and complete desperation, try to take over the little that is left.

Then again, due to the massive amount of pollution, we might end up with no drinking water at all. I guess that would lead us to one of the ends that are best described in post-apocalyptic novels and movies (Mad Max? The Road?).

I figure no massive war till... hmm... around ~2050. (Though, I'd like to do some research on pollution and the nuclear weapons before I could post final opinion).

Now, all big players (if I go with my drinking water theory) will be involved, but if they fight for something that is so little and wouldn't last long, there would be no major/permanent alliances.

Some of-the-top-of-my-head scenario would be (and there are many possibilities):
EU tries to hold on and defend their territory (for Danube and Volga are theirs; with some doubt about Volga, as it's in Russia and Russia is a independent from EU). USA/EU goes for Nile. China goes for USA/Russia. EU seeks neutrality and integrity on their territory. China come's for EU after beating their previous opponent (because, in my opinion, China is very dangerous for they are technologically very advanced and they have by far more men which are, again, far more motivated). End result EU vs. China, USA or Russia badly beaten.


I know this is a topic that is low on fact and viable arguments, but I'd sure like to give it a try. Don't forget, Why, When, Who, How. ps. No need to discuss my drinking water scenario, it's all about sharing your prediction on it.

Cheers.

[veggieboy]

Shouldn't it be World War 3, not "War World 3"?

[Alek_tq]

Shouldn't it be World War 3, not "War World 3"?


.... no..... yeah.... :D thanks....

[Roland]

I don't have much time atm so I'll throw this out:

Oil
Middle-East
Major players: China/Russia USA/Israel Iran/Iraq?/Afghanistan
Tactical Nukes possible

or

The Dollar continues to plunge because of Hyper-Inflation and increased fear around the world that the USA's increased debt, will no longer be able to pay it's debts(even though many of the worlds nations owe us money)

All industry collapses, States, cities fragment into a Mob Rule and Citizen Refuge Strongholds (primarily in the west)

USA looks ripe for the picking as the rush to find/collect resources ramps up.

A Russia/China joint offensive is discussed and temporarily signed, though both countries ultimately mistrust each other and realize that eventually they too will be at odds.

;)

[yerkyerk]

Not very creative, but;

Why; protest against capitalism
When; somewhere between 20-50 years
Who; all developed and developing nations (except Switzerland, which stays neutral)
How; Some people (or an entire nation) who are against the Westernization of the world obtain nukes, throw it on Western countries (most likely America), get quickly eradicated by the US, but the retaliation strikes will cause so much aggression among its neighbouring countries it quickly evolves into a worldwar. China surives as victor, EU might be able to fend itself of and a treaty in a China-centered world and America sees its official end as a worldpower.

Heh, long live theorycrafting.

[veggieboy]

Oil
Middle-East
Major players: China/Russia USA/Israel Iran/Iraq?/Afghanistan
Tactical Nukes possible

That's totally what I was thinking.

I was thinking that USA, Israel, The UAE (Dubai, Sharjah, ETC) would definitely be on the "Allied" team in an Oil fight.

We're still one of the strongest military and buying powers in the world. :/

You know that we're developing lasers that can shoot down bombs up to 60 miles away? They're putting them on Navy ships and Planes and stuff. They can also shoot down planes... I think that a 21st century war (To the scale of WWII) would be much worse than anything that has ever happened on this planet.

With all the technology and stuff. We can send out signals/frequencies to mess with peoples buildings and their stock exchanges.

I think that a World War 3 would definitely bring the world to the brink of an apocalypse.

[ChromeDivision666]

I am thinking the African nations have some potential if they get their s*** together. Then you would have another densely populated nation, powered by manpower and numbers, rather than jets and nukes etc. So we can put them on the side for now.


The EU is becoming a power house as well, and since they dont share any real close borders with the US, they can muck around and write their policies etc. Basically they are looking at being more peaceful at the moment anyway.


The US is trying to get out of economic downturn with $xbillion in debt, relying on international trade as it is cheaper to pay for something made in a country where there are no workers rights and are paid at less than minimum wage to produce something that would otherwise cost more than twice the amount in the US.


China has the greatest population atm, towering over everyone else except India really. They aren't in any recession since they are still recording quarters of growth and not downturn. So long as they are still keeping the growth percentage up, they are the economic warhorse. From here, they are in control of the US, and AUS both which rely heavily on trade with China.


Australia...well we are just backing the US thats it really lol.



As for a trigger for the war, I am guessing an arrogant attack on a nation by the US could do it (Not with the current president though, he comes across as a very passive leader and will "use force where necessary"). Someone's ego might get in the way and the beginning of imposing a leader's ideology on another nation could turn the gears of war.

Religion is another one that could do it (Sorry all of you with faith, I am not bashing you:happy: ). Look at September 11 in the US. 100's of people saddened, thousands angered, and a nation now living in fear because of the two planes colliding with the Twin Towers. It has been addressed as an attack by Muslim extremists (Not that all muslims are terrorists, I have muslim friends who say that the fundamental muslims are out of control) and has created racial tension as well between Western and Eastern Culture.


In the end, we have just got to be careful as to what we do and how we do it. If we all act like the Swiss people, no war need be fought...













...26/08/2067 is when WW3 begins

[fathersquid]

That's totally what I was thinking.

You know that we're developing lasers that can shoot down bombs up to 60 miles away?

Better check today's news....

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/09/17/czech-missile-shield.html

As for WWIII - I like the water scenario - but what is interesting is that over 2/3 of the available fresh water in the world is currently locked up in Greenland and Antarctica - who would think they could be major conflict hotspots?

I think oil is overrated as a scenario. Other options for fuels exist, other sources of oil exist. The global mentality will have changed long before people decide it is worth blowing the planet up for a tank of gas...

The India / Pakistan balance has always been fragile - both countries have nuclear weapons... a very scary potential there. North Korea or Iran could potentially develop weapons... To me the likelihood of a wingnut sitting on the trigger of a nuke is much more likely than any other possibility.

[Draeziel]

Fathersquid is right when saying that pakistan is political fragile. And remember:Pakistan owns nukes. This could become dangerous if fundamentalists take over the gouvenment (what isnt that implausable).
But more likely would be a war for enegy/resources. We just started to change our main energy feed from fossile fuel to renewable resources.
If something went wrong, this could easyly become a reason for a war beetween the leading industrial nations.